Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

分類:

《快思慢想》作者、諾貝爾經濟學獎得主丹尼爾.康納曼
《不當決策》作者奧利維‧席波尼
《推出你的影響力》作者凱斯.桑思坦
聯手合著!

想做出最佳決策,必須擺脫「雜音」無所不在的影響!

  想像有兩個身在同一個城市的醫生,對兩個極為相似的病例,做出了完全不同的診斷;或者是同一個法院的兩位法官,對犯下相同罪刑的罪犯,做出了迥然相異的判決;又或者是公司處理客訴事件時,解決的方式可能取決於究竟是誰接了那一通客訴電話。現在,再想像同一位醫生、法官、顧客服務專員,對同類型的病患、事件,因為當時是星期幾、時間是白天還是晚上……而做出了完全不同的判斷。原本應該是一致性的決定,卻充滿變數──這些正是「雜音(noise)」的例子。

  本書揭示了「雜音」為許多領域帶來的負面影響,包含醫學、法律、經濟預測、鑑識科學、保釋申請、兒童保護及個人所做出的選擇等等。任何需要做出判斷的地方,就有雜音存在,然而大多數時候,個人和組織都對此毫無所覺。

  心理學教授康納曼、商學院教授席波尼和法律學者桑思坦,在本書中呈現豐富的研究資料、令人耳目一新的深刻見解,解析人們在下決定時,為什麼、又是如何受到雜音的影響,並提出實用解方,藉由一些簡單的矯正方法,例如盡量避免以團體討論的方式做決定、將複雜的決策拆解成多個基於事實的評估等等,人們可以減輕雜音和偏見所帶來的影響,做出更好的決定。
(文/博客來編譯)
  From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, coauthor of Nudge, and author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake!, Noise is a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, “full of novel insights, rigorous evidence, engaging writing, and practical applications” (Adam Grant).

  Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical.

  In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions.

  Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.